Construction in Quebec: the hot markets of 2026, by segment and by region
Quebec construction is not one market but several, and they are not moving in the same direction. Renovation jumped 30% while new single-family homes collapsed. And forty minutes apart, Laval crossed the rental balance point while Mont-Tremblant stayed at 0% vacancy.
- Residential renovation is the hottest segment: spending climbed 30% in 2025, and the APCHQ forecasts 8% more in 2026.
- New home construction is in structural decline. In Quebec City, detached, semi-detached and row houses now account for only 8% of residential housing starts.
- Rental dominates everything else: 85% of housing starts in the first half of 2026 are destined for rental, and up to 91% in Joliette.
- Laval set a record in 2025 with 4,613 units, then fell 30% in the first half of 2026. Its vacancy rate rose to 3.4%, above the balance threshold.
- The Laurentians are living the opposite: several towns remain below 1% vacancy, and Mont-Tremblant at 0%.
On this page
Construction market segment
A construction market segment groups together the projects that share the same type of client, the same financing model and the same trigger. Residential renovation, new home construction, condominium, rental and commercial are five of them, and they do not respond to the same interest rates or the same programs. A contractor almost always works in a single one of these segments, on a territory bounded by their travel radius, which makes the industry's overall statistic useless for deciding anything at all.
How to read the numbers
Four series recur in this article, and they do not measure the same thing. Confusing them is the most common mistake when reading construction numbers.
| Series | What it counts | What it does not say |
|---|---|---|
| Housing starts | New housing units | Nothing about renovation or commercial |
| Renovation spending | Money invested in existing buildings | Nothing about new construction |
| Hours worked | Time reported on regulated sites | Excludes a good share of residential renovation |
| Vacancy rate | The share of vacant rental units | A leading indicator, not a measure of activity |
A segment can therefore explode in one series and be entirely absent from another. That is exactly what happens with renovation: it is the most dynamic segment of the moment and it barely appears in the CCQ's hours-worked statistics, because it is not subject to the same rules. A renovator who compares against industry figures is comparing against a picture they are not part of.
One last note on the vacancy rate, because it comes up often in this article. The recognized balance threshold is 3%. Below it, tenants have little choice and developers build. Above it, the balance of power reverses and rental projects become harder to finance.
1. Residential renovation
If you remember only one figure from this article, this is the one. After two slow years, residential renovation spending jumped roughly 30% in 2025, and the APCHQ forecasts 8% more in 2026 and then 4% in 2027.
The driver is simple. With home prices and the cost of moving, many households give up on changing property and improve the one they have. An APCHQ survey of its members in November 2025 found that more than a quarter of renovation contractors expected demand to rise over the following six months.
The regional gaps are enormous. In 2025, the growth in residential renovation investment ranged from roughly 4% in the Gatineau region to nearly 60% in the Trois-Rivières region, with 21% in Montreal.
Demand that exceeds capacity shifts the balance of power on price. This is the time to raise margins rather than fill the order book at any cost, and to turn down projects that eat up estimating hours for nothing.
What to look at before changing course
A contractor who sees the order book emptying has two possible reflexes: wait for things to pick back up, or go looking elsewhere. The first costs a year, the second costs a learning curve. The right choice depends on a few numbers you already have.
- Which segment are we in exactly, and for how many years?
- How many months of work does our order book cover, and at what margin?
- Does the slowdown we feel affect our segment, or only our territory?
- What do we already know how to do that would serve a neighbouring segment, with no new licence or new equipment?
- If the order book is not full by fall, what do we decide, and when?
A good advisor asks for your segment and your territory before citing a figure. A hollow answer talks about the general health of Quebec construction, or offers you the same recipe as a contractor in a completely different trade from yours.
Deciding whether your decline comes from the market, your region or your visibility means looking at the three separately. A 90-minute consultation settles it, with a written summary you keep, whether or not you work with us afterward.
2. New home construction
This is the segment where the gap between perception and the numbers is widest.
In Quebec City, detached, semi-detached or row houses account for about 8% of residential housing starts since the beginning of 2026. Roughly 228 single-family homes have gone up there since January, pointing to nearly 600 for the full year. About 1,500 were being built each year around 2006.
This is not a passing trough tied to interest rates, but a shift in developers' appetite toward multi-unit housing, one that began more than ten years ago. The number of possible clients has shrunk while the number of contractors has not followed the same curve.
Two government measures were put in place to revive access to homeownership: a GST reduction on the purchase of a first home in March 2026, and a partial refund of land transfer duties announced by Quebec in April. At mid-year, their effects were not yet visible in housing starts.
This does not mean the market is disappearing. It is concentrating. The buyers who still build are the ones who can afford to choose, which shifts competition from price toward reputation, quality of execution and the ability to show comparable projects. In a shrinking market, share is taken from competitors, and the cost per customer acquired rises mechanically. Cutting prices to compensate destroys margin without widening the market.
3. Rental and condominium
Rental crushes everything else, and it is the most important fact to grasp if you build new.
Over the first half of 2026, 85% of housing units started in Quebec were destined for rental. This is not a big-city phenomenon: the share reaches 85% in Victoriaville, 88% in Val-d'Or, 89% in Thetford Mines, 91% in Joliette and 95% in Sept-Îles.
But the peak has passed. Rental housing starts hit a record in Quebec in 2025 with 43,560 units. In January 2026, residential housing starts, all types combined, fell 44% in the Montreal metropolitan region, 46% in the Quebec City region and 48% in the Gatineau region compared with January 2025.
Two causes recur: the drop in temporary immigration is reducing rental demand, and vacancy rates are climbing back up. In Quebec, the rate went from 1.8% in 2024 to 2.9% in 2025, very close to the 3% balance threshold. This is a real easing after four years of shortage, and it changes developers' math.
Early-year forecasts counted on 60,800 to 62,000 residential housing starts in Quebec for 2026. By mid-year, the trend pointed rather toward 57,000. New condominium, for its part, has been suffering longer than rental.
4. Private commercial
Commercial is the segment most poorly described by the statistics, because it is almost always grouped with institutional, meaning the schools and hospitals funded by the state and awarded through public tender. These are two unrelated markets: the first sells to an owner or a commercial tenant, the second to a public contracting authority. When you separate them, the picture changes.
The decline the CCQ announced for institutional and commercial in 2026, about 2% of hours worked in Quebec, is explained mainly by the drop in public investment in government buildings. On the strictly private side, Statistics Canada was still measuring a slight monthly increase in commercial construction investment in early 2026, but at the Canadian level, with no Quebec breakdown published in the same series.
The most useful point for an SMB is elsewhere. In Canada, the office vacancy rate fell for the first time since the pandemic, from 18.7% to 18%, and no major office construction is planned before 2030. In other words, the spaces hosting the return to the office are existing spaces. The work is in refit, code upgrades and conversion, not in new construction.
This shift favours an SMB: a refit sells to a company decision-maker rather than through public tender, the cycle is shorter, and margin is negotiated on speed of execution as much as on price.
| Segment | 2026 trend | What drives or holds it back |
|---|---|---|
| Residential renovation | Strong growth | Households renovating instead of moving |
| Commercial refit | Stable to rising | No new office construction before 2030 |
| Rental and multi-unit | Slowing after a peak | Immigration down, vacancy up |
| New home construction | Structural decline | Developers changed product |
| New condominium | Difficult | High costs and slow resale |
| New commercial | Weak | Tariff uncertainty, consumer habits |
Quebec's regional picture
This is the part that provincial averages hide best. The big centres and the smaller regions are moving in opposite directions.
One note before reading the table. These figures cover residential housing starts only, all types combined: apartments, single-family, semi-detached and row houses. They say nothing about commercial or renovation. They cover urban centres of 10,000 inhabitants and more.
| Market | January 2026 vs January 2025 | First half of 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Montreal | -44% | +61% |
| Saguenay | +40% | +132% |
| Drummondville | +150% | Strongest annual forecast, +8% |
| Trois-Rivières | +12% | -16% |
| Sherbrooke | -11% | Annual forecast +5% |
| Quebec City | -46% | -12% |
| Laval | Not published separately | -30% |
| Gatineau | -48% | Only region with a forecast annual decline, -6% |
Two cautions about this table. One month does not make a year, and January 2025 had been exceptionally strong in the big centres, which amplifies the January drop. And the markets that fall in the first half of 2026, such as Quebec City, Trois-Rivières and Laval, are precisely the ones that had risen most in 2025: it is a comparison effect as much as a slowdown.
In total, a little more than 26,000 housing units were started in Quebec during the first six months of 2026, 2% more than in the same period in 2025. The pace is therefore stable in volume, but it has shifted completely from one market to another. For a business anchored in a single territory, a stable provincial average can thus hide a revenue drop of half.
Market: Laval
Laval lived through the most spectacular year in its residential history in 2025, and 2026 is a return to earth that has to be read correctly.
The 2025 record. The city recorded 4,613 housing starts, against 2,023 the previous year, a rise of 128%. To gauge the scale, that same year, new residential construction grew 5.6% in Canada, 23% in Quebec and 58% across the territory of the Montreal Metropolitan Community. Laval therefore doubled the metropolitan pace, itself already exceptional.
The 2026 pullback. The first quarter produced 1,223 units, and the first half shows a 30% decline against 2025. That figure frightens out of context: it compares to a record year. In absolute volume, Laval remains one of the most active markets in Quebec. A contractor who had adjusted capacity to the 2025 peak, however, is left with fixed costs calibrated on a volume that will not return this year.
What is coming. The City's urban planning department estimates at about 54,000 the number of residential units planned for the next ten years. Laval's particularity is that these projects most often roll out in eight to twelve phases, and the majority have already obtained their regulatory approvals. A housing start here is therefore not the beginning of a project, but the first phase of a project already approved. For a subcontractor, this visibility has direct commercial value: a developer committed to twelve phases is a recurring client, not a one-off sale, which justifies investing more in the relationship than in prospecting.
The signal to watch. Laval's rental vacancy rate rose to 3.4%, above the 3% balance threshold. Average rent there grew 8.3% over one year to reach $1,347. A rate above balance means tenants now have choice, which gradually cools developers of new rental housing.
Laval is a volume market carried by already-approved multi-phase projects, which gives several years of visibility. But new rental reached its tipping point there first in the region. For a renovator or a refit contractor, an easing rental stock means owners who must renovate to stay competitive and defend their rental income. Rental renovation then becomes a quantifiable return argument for the building owner, which shortens the decision cycle and protects margin.
Market: the Laurentians
The Laurentians present exactly the opposite situation from Laval, and that is what makes the comparison useful.
A rental shortage that persists. While Quebec approached balance at 2.9% and Laval passed it at 3.4%, several towns in the Laurentians remained below 1% vacancy. Mont-Tremblant was measured at 0%, Sainte-Adèle at 0.4% and Mont-Laurier at 0.5%. On the north shore, the rate sat around 2.5% with rents up 6.2%. A developer there still finds demand that absorbs new construction, and therefore a lower vacancy risk than elsewhere in the metropolitan region.
The historic territory of the single-family home. This is a structural fact that explains a lot. In 2020, the Laurentians administrative region accounted for 10.1% of Quebec's housing starts, but 15.7% of the province's single-family homes. In other words, the region is overrepresented in the segment declining most sharply at the provincial scale. The national decline therefore translates there into a sharper revenue drop for the businesses that have never done anything else.
An active resale market. Remote work continues to support property demand in the region, particularly among households working remotely two or three days a week. Mont-Tremblant was among the areas with the strongest sales increases in 2025, with a jump of 15%.
The forecasts. The APCHQ anticipated a rise of about 4% in housing starts for 2026 in the Laurentians, with the same upward renovation trend as elsewhere in Quebec.
A vacancy rate below 1% means new rental still has room there, unlike Laval. But the region is also the most exposed to the single-family decline, because it built proportionally far more than average. A new-home builder in the Laurentians therefore takes the provincial decline with a leverage effect on revenue. Vacation property and secondary-home renovation form a distinct market there, less sensitive to interest rates than to high incomes, where the client decides quickly and negotiates less on price.
Market: Lanaudière
Lanaudière is the region where the shift toward apartments is the most advanced of the three.
An almost total conversion. In Joliette, 91% of the housing units started during the first half of 2026 were apartments, against 85% for the Quebec average. It is one of the highest rates in the province, on par with towns like Thetford Mines or Sept-Îles.
A more affordable resale market. Historically, Lanaudière offers median prices well below those of the immediate north shore. This relative affordability makes it a first-home market, which makes it more sensitive than the others to mortgage rates and to homeownership support measures. The typical client there has a tight budget and weighs every line item, which moves the sale toward price clarity rather than the high end.
The shared north shore. The municipalities of Terrebonne, Mascouche, Repentigny and L'Assomption belong to Lanaudière while also being part of the Montreal metropolitan region. They therefore track metropolitan dynamics more than those of Joliette or Rawdon. On this north shore, the vacancy rate sat around 2.5% with rents up 6.2%.
Lanaudière is not one market, it is two. The north shore behaves like a metropolitan suburb, with multi-unit housing and developer clients. The north of the region behaves like a regional market, with single-family homes, renovation and cottages, and owner clients. A contractor who covers both should treat them as two distinct territories, with different offers, prices and margins. Charging the same rates on both sides amounts to leaving money on the table on one side and losing sales on the other.
Comparing the three markets
The table below summarizes what sets the three territories apart. It reads as a decision aid: where is your segment carried, and where does it struggle?
| Criterion | Laval | Laurentians | Lanaudière |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rental vacancy rate | 3.4%, above balance | Below 1% in several towns | About 2.5% on the north shore |
| New rental | Tipping point reached | Still room | Dominant segment, 91% in Joliette |
| New home construction | A minority | Above-average exposure | Present in the north of the region |
| Renovation | Carried by an easing rental stock | Carried by vacation homes and remote work | Carried by first-home buyers |
| Long-term visibility | High, 54,000 units planned | Medium, owner market | Variable by sub-territory |
| Type of client | Developers and building owners | Owner-occupants and vacationers | Two distinct clienteles |
The vacancy-rate row is the one that decides most. Forty minutes' drive apart, Laval passed balance while Mont-Tremblant stayed at zero. A contractor who treats these two markets as a single territory gets the leading segment, the type of client and the price wrong. It is a mistake that does not show up in lost sales, because you never know which clients you never reached.
What to track depending on your situation
The two situations are not steered with the same numbers. Tracking the wrong indicators leads to concluding that nothing is working when everything is doing exactly what it was asked to do.
| Indicator | Overflowing order book | Emptying order book |
|---|---|---|
| Number of inquiries received | To bring down | To bring up |
| Quote win rate | The central indicator | Useful, but secondary |
| Estimating hours per closed sale | The central indicator | Worth watching, no more |
| Average margin per sale | Must rise | Must not collapse |
| Cost per customer acquired | Of little use | The central indicator |
| Job applications received | The central indicator | Of little use |
The last row is surprising, and it explains many misjudged decisions. In a company at full capacity, a campaign that produces job applications is worth more than a campaign that produces quotes, because it is hiring that unlocks revenue.
What only you know: your real segment, your acceptable travel radius, the number of months your order book covers, your margin by project type, and what your team can do beyond what it does today. These five elements decide far more than the economic cycle. The radius calculation deserves to be done seriously: widening your territory by thirty minutes costs non-billable time on every visit and every estimate, and that cost is compared to the margin of the sales it makes accessible, never to revenue. What gets delegated: tracking data by segment and by territory, monitoring programs and regulatory changes, and visibility with the clients of the targeted segment.
Reputation counts for more in a market that is concentrating, a topic developed in branding. And to target a neighbouring segment, the cost-per-customer calculation is detailed in the break-even threshold of a campaign.
Four questions to ask yourself this fall
The overall view of the marketing plan is in the marketing plan and its budget.
Choosing a market rather than enduring it is at the heart of the Generate demand and growth goal.
Want first to be found by the clients of the rising segment? See how we plug in as reinforcement on search engine optimization.
Frequently asked questions about Quebec construction markets
Which segment is the strongest right now?
Residential renovation. Spending climbed roughly 30% in 2025 and the APCHQ forecasts 8% more in 2026, then 4% in 2027. The driver is the number of households choosing to improve their property rather than buy another.
Why is Laval falling 30% in 2026?
Because it is comparing to a record year. Laval started 4,613 homes in 2025, a 128% rise over 2024, while Quebec grew 23%. The 2026 pullback brings the market back toward its normal level, which remains among the most active in the province, with about 54,000 units planned for the next ten years.
Can you still build rental in the Laurentians?
The need there is more acute than elsewhere. While Quebec approached the 3% vacancy balance threshold, several towns in the Laurentians stayed below 1%, including Mont-Tremblant at 0%, Sainte-Adèle at 0.4% and Mont-Laurier at 0.5%. The market there is not saturated, unlike Laval, which passed balance at 3.4%.
What sets Lanaudière apart from the other two?
Lanaudière works as two markets. The north shore, with Terrebonne, Mascouche and Repentigny, behaves like a metropolitan suburb geared toward multi-unit housing. The north of the region, around Joliette and Rawdon, remains a regional market of single-family homes and renovation. In Joliette, 91% of the housing starts in the first half of 2026 were apartments.
Will new home construction pick back up?
Not to the level of twenty years ago. In Quebec City, detached, semi-detached and row houses now account for only about 8% of residential housing starts. Two homeownership support measures were put in place in 2026, but their effects were not yet visible at mid-year.
Is there work in commercial construction?
Mostly in refit rather than new construction. In Canada, the office vacancy rate fell for the first time since the pandemic, and no major office construction is planned before 2030. Companies bringing their teams back therefore do so in existing spaces, which have to be adapted.
What does a vacancy rate mean for a contractor?
It is the leading indicator for new rental. The balance threshold is 3%. Below it, tenants have little choice and developers build. Above it, the balance of power reverses and rental projects become harder to finance. That is why Laval, at 3.4%, and Mont-Tremblant, at 0%, do not offer the same prospects at all.
Should you change segment when yours slows down?
Only if you can do it with no new licence, no major new equipment and without losing what makes your reputation. A new-home builder who shifts to renovation changes client, sales cycle and margin. The question to settle is what your team already knows how to do, not what the market offers.
- APCHQ, Prévisions économiques 2026-2027, February 11, 2026, on housing starts, regional forecasts and renovation spending.
- Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, monthly housing starts data for 2026 and the fall 2025 Rental Market Survey, relayed by APCHQ housing bulletins and the Quebec press, accessed July 2026.
- City of Laval, urban planning department, housing starts and planned projects data, relayed by the local and national press, 2026.
- Commission de la construction du Québec, Perspectives 2026, on trends by sub-sector.
- Société d'habitation du Québec, regional housing profile, Laurentians administrative region, on the historic share of single-family homes.
- Statistics Canada, Building construction investment, February 2026.
Gabriel almost always takes your first call and carries out your audit. He builds the strategy starting from your growth goal: where to put your budget, which market to test and how to connect each lead to a real sale in your CRM. He mainly leads engagements for three goals: Optimize the profitability of your digital campaigns, Develop a new market, and Generate demand and growth. With Geneviève, he also works on organic search (SEO), AI visibility (GEO) and conversion rate optimization (CRO). The sales a Google Ads or Meta Ads campaign brings in depend on the page that receives the click. He writes mainly about marketing strategy, paid advertising and measurement.
About Falia →
SEO
Paid advertising
Conversion
AI visibility
Web design